Resilience vs dependence
The two axes answer different questions. The horizontal axis asks whether an island has the capacity to absorb a shock; the vertical axis asks how much of its economy is tied to the outside world. Only together do they separate a dependence that is carried from a dependence that breaks the carrier. The splits are the panel's own medians, not an arbitrary 50.
Resilience against external dependence
Horizontal = the weighted nine-metric resilience composite. Vertical = the weighted five-channel Cumulative Vulnerability Index; higher means more dependent.
Selecting a quadrant fades the others; it never repaints them. Colour belongs to the entity, not to the current filter.
- Island (12-island panel)
- Contrast case — off-panel, partial data
- Resilience median 49.55
- CVI median 50.65
Dot size is population on a sqrt scale (radius 5–14px, so area tracks population). Every dot shares one hue: position already states the quadrant, so colour is not asked to repeat it.
The hollow dashed marker is the contrast case. It never takes the panel's hue, takes no part in the two medians, and neither the axis range nor the size scale is fitted to it. Its position rests on partial data, so it must not be read with the weight of a panel dot.
▸Table view
| Island | Composite resilience | CVI | Resilience − dependence gap | Quadrant | Population | Data confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 72.56 | 62.13 | +10.43 | Dependent but capable | 5.7m | 89.7%·3 |
| Seychelles | 54.61 | 61.27 | −6.66 | Dependent but capable | 98.5k | 93.1%·2 |
| Maldives | 41.78 | 58.00 | −16.22 | Dependent and fragile | 540.5k | 96.6%·1 |
| Vanuatu | 35.61 | 53.21 | −17.60 | Dependent and fragile | 307.2k | 100.0% |
| Tuvalu | 33.16 | 51.03 | −17.87 | Dependent and fragile | 11.8k | 79.3%·5 |
| Papua New Guinea | 44.54 | 50.70 | −6.16 | Dependent and fragile | 8.9m | 96.6%·1 |
| Cabo Verde | 46.50 | 50.59 | −4.09 | Low exposure, low capacity | 556k | 100.0% |
| Jamaica | 52.59 | 50.27 | +2.32 | Robust and self-reliant | 3m | 89.7%·3 |
| Mauritius | 58.88 | 49.17 | +9.71 | Robust and self-reliant | 1.3m | 100.0% |
| Barbados | 59.74 | 46.63 | +13.11 | Robust and self-reliant | 287.4k | 89.7%·3 |
| Fiji | 52.98 | 46.30 | +6.68 | Robust and self-reliant | 896.4k | 100.0% |
| Haiti | 32.55 | 42.59 | −10.04 | Low exposure, low capacity | 11.4m | 100.0% |
| Jeju Contrast case | 66.60 | 57.11 | +9.49 | Dependent but capable | 695.4k | 20.7%·22 |
The 12-island panel. Jeju appears only as an off-panel contrast marker and enters neither the ranking nor the medians.
Jeju is drawn on this scatter as an off-panel contrast marker — a hollow dashed ring that never takes the panel's hue. It is a contrast case that is never ranked, and two of the five CVI channels (energy, logistics) are undefined at sub-national level. Its data confidence is 20.7%, so the marker itself is positioned on partial data. The value its remaining channels produce is still shown in the channel table below, and Jeju enters neither the two medians nor the ranked gap bars.
What each cell means
Membership follows only from the two medians. The islands listed in each cell are what the model produced, not a classification decided in advance.
Dependent but capable 2
Has the capital and logistics to manage a dependence it cannot eliminate. The most interesting cell in the model.
- Singapore72.6 / 62.189.7%·3
- Seychelles54.6 / 61.393.1%·2
Dependent and fragile 4
High dependence with no capacity to absorb it. The dangerous combination.
- Maldives41.8 / 58.096.6%·1
- Vanuatu35.6 / 53.2100.0%
- Tuvalu33.2 / 51.079.3%·5
- Papua New Guinea44.5 / 50.796.6%·1
Robust and self-reliant 4
Low external dependence and high capacity to absorb a shock.
Low exposure, low capacity 2
Low external exposure — but usually because the cash economy is small, not because the island is self-sufficient.
- Cabo Verde46.5 / 50.6100.0%
- Haiti32.5 / 42.6100.0%
Warning: Haiti lands in the low-exposure cell not because it is safe. CVI measures how much of the cash economy is entangled with the outside; in Haiti that cash economy is itself small. It is the clearest case in the panel where low exposure must not be read as low risk.
The resilience-minus-dependence gap
The resilience composite minus the CVI. Both indices are normalised onto the same 0–100 scale, which is what makes the subtraction meaningful.
- Capacity exceeds dependence (+)
- Dependence exceeds capacity (−)
A positive gap means the island can carry a dependence it cannot eliminate. A negative gap means the dependence outruns the capacity. It is the sign that carries the reading, not the magnitude — and a gap of zero is a balance point, not a safety line.
Jeju, the contrast case, shows a gap of +9.49 — but it is not ranked here, because its CVI rests on only part of the five channels and the bar would not be comparable to the panel's.
▸Table view
| Island | Resilience − dependence gap | Composite resilience | CVI | Data confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barbados | +13.11 | 59.74 | 46.63 | 89.7%·3 |
| Singapore | +10.43 | 72.56 | 62.13 | 89.7%·3 |
| Mauritius | +9.71 | 58.88 | 49.17 | 100.0% |
| Fiji | +6.68 | 52.98 | 46.30 | 100.0% |
| Jamaica | +2.32 | 52.59 | 50.27 | 89.7%·3 |
| Cabo Verde | −4.09 | 46.50 | 50.59 | 100.0% |
| Papua New Guinea | −6.16 | 44.54 | 50.70 | 96.6%·1 |
| Seychelles | −6.66 | 54.61 | 61.27 | 93.1%·2 |
| Haiti | −10.04 | 32.55 | 42.59 | 100.0% |
| Maldives | −16.22 | 41.78 | 58.00 | 96.6%·1 |
| Vanuatu | −17.60 | 35.61 | 53.21 | 100.0% |
| Tuvalu | −17.87 | 33.16 | 51.03 | 79.3%·5 |
Dependence by channel
The five channels behind the CVI. Each is a 0–100 exposure score where higher means more dependent. The superscript is how many of the channel's indicators actually carry a value.
Cell shading is stretched over the panel's actual range. One hue only: saturation is magnitude and nothing else.
| Island | V1Food & import supplyWeight 25% | V2Energy & fuelWeight 20% | V3External demandWeight 20% | V4Capital & external financeWeight 20% | V5Trade logistics & remotenessWeight 15% | CVICumulative Vulnerability Index | Data confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore #1 | 100.01/2 | 50.02/2 | 43.03/3 | 50.02/4 | 56.82/2 | 62.13 | 89.7%·3 |
| Seychelles #2 | 81.32/2 | 44.62/2 | 71.53/3 | 48.53/4 | 53.42/2 | 61.27 | 93.1%·2 |
| Maldives #3 | 73.72/2 | 46.92/2 | 81.33/3 | 42.04/4 | 36.82/2 | 58.00 | 96.6%·1 |
| Vanuatu #4 | 37.12/2 | 63.72/2 | 50.93/3 | 56.84/4 | 64.52/2 | 53.21 | 100.0% |
| Tuvalu #5 | 4.52/2 | 46.12/2 | 100.02/3 | 34.13/4 | 92.41/2 | 51.03 | 79.3%·5 |
| Papua New Guinea #6 | 56.62/2 | 70.72/2 | 24.13/3 | 33.44/4 | 72.71/2 | 50.70 | 96.6%·1 |
| Cabo Verde #7 | 69.02/2 | 7.42/2 | 73.53/3 | 70.14/4 | 21.12/2 | 50.59 | 100.0% |
| Jamaica #8 | 84.52/2 | 11.32/2 | 53.42/3 | 62.24/4 | 25.11/2 | 50.27 | 89.7%·3 |
| Mauritius #9 | 87.42/2 | 12.92/2 | 39.43/3 | 40.64/4 | 58.22/2 | 49.17 | 100.0% |
| Barbados #10 | 92.82/2 | 34.92/2 | 28.13/3 | 39.32/4 | 19.81/2 | 46.63 | 89.7%·3 |
| Fiji #11 | 53.72/2 | 27.12/2 | 42.83/3 | 39.84/4 | 72.82/2 | 46.30 | 100.0% |
| Haiti #12 | 25.12/2 | 80.42/2 | 58.43/3 | 35.44/4 | 9.82/2 | 42.59 | 100.0% |
| Jeju Contrast case | 70.41/2 | —0/2 | 76.21/3 | 21.41/4 | —0/2 | 57.1147% | 20.7%·22 |
The contrast row is not painted on the panel's colour scale, because it is not being compared to it. Jeju is a contrast case and is never ranked.
▸Orientation warning: indicators that enter this layer inverted
A few indicators enter the resilience layer and this vulnerability layer with opposite signs — the same number reads as a risk on one side and as a buffer on the other. Hiding that would make the model look self-contradictory, so it is stated outright.
- V1 · Food & import supply Weight 25%Low domestic primary production + weak fishery = high import need.Indicators: aff, fssInverted relative to the resilience layer. A large primary sector is a volatility risk (lowers M1) but also domestic calorie supply (lowers V1). Both readings are kept.
- V2 · Energy & fuel Weight 20%Scored on MODERN renewable share, not raw renewable share - traditional biomass is not energy security.Indicators: modern_renew, clean_cookEnters V2 as a capability, not as fuel independence. Clean cooking on a small island usually means imported LPG, so treating it as reduced energy dependence is the weakest link in this channel. Flagged, not hidden.
- V3 · External demand Weight 20%Concentration and volatility of the earnings base.Indicators: tour_xp, xcon, xin
- V4 · Capital & external finance Weight 20%Reliance on externally sourced money.Indicators: fdi, oda, extdebt, remit
- V5 · Trade logistics & remoteness Weight 15%Amplifier of the other four; weighted lower to avoid double counting.Indicators: rem_idx, tradeTrade openness is an amplifier here, not a shock: it measures how much of the economy has to physically cross an ocean.