Jamaica
Every number behind this island's composite, opened up to the raw values. Nine metric scores and the indicators under each, the five dependence channels, the 2019 = 100 recovery path, exposure and capacity on the six shock channels, and the provenance of all 36 indicator cells.
JAMData confidence89.7%·3Data vintage 2018-2021 (structural snapshot, not a nowcast)
- Region
- Caribbean
- Income
- Upper-middle income
- Capital
- Kingston
- Population
- 2,961,161
- Area
- 10,990 km²
- Rank
- #6 / 12
Composite resilience
52.6
Rank #6 / 12
CVI
50.3
Rank #8 / 12
Resilience − dependence gap
+2.3
52.6 − 50.3
Resilience vs dependence
Robust and self-reliant
Low external dependence and high capacity to absorb a shock.
The nine-metric shape
This island (solid) against the panel's per-metric median (dashed) on the same fixed 0–100 axis. An axis with no value is left unconnected: joining a missing score to zero would invent a shape that is not in the data.
- Jamaica
- Panel median
The median is taken over the twelve-island panel only. The contrast case never enters the reference.
▸Table view
| Metric | Score | Panel median | Vs median | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 Food | 53.4 | 55.4 | −2.1 | 3/3 |
| M2 Energy | 74.0 | 53.4 | +20.5 | 3/3 |
| M3 Diversification | 46.6 | 47.8 | −1.3 | 2/3 |
| M4 Fiscal | 31.1 | 45.8 | −14.7 | 3/3 |
| M5 Digital | 46.3 | 48.7 | −2.3 | 2/3 |
| M6 Climate | 50.7 | 36.7 | +13.9 | 3/3 |
| M7 Ocean | 51.0 | 23.0 | +28.0 | 3/3 |
| M8 Human capital | 65.8 | 63.2 | +2.7 | 3/3 |
| M9 Dependence | 55.4 | 60.3 | −4.9 | 3/3 |
Metric by metric
A metric score is the plain mean of its base indicators after normalisation to 0–100. A missing indicator is dropped from that mean rather than scored as zero, so a thin coverage string means the score rests on correspondingly less evidence.
M1Food & primary production security
Weight 12%Coverage 3/353.4
No short-run domestic substitute for calories.
| Indicator | Raw value | Normalised | Provenance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Agriculture/forestry/fishing share of GDP (MVI AFF) aff | 11.60 index 0-100 | 69.0 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Instability of agricultural production (MVI AIN) ain | 8.37 index 0-100 | 91.0 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Fish Stock Status (EPI) fss | 0.694 score 0-100 | 0.0 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
M2Energy security & transition
Weight 12%Coverage 3/374.0
Fuel cutoffs cascade into water, transport and the cold chain.
| Indicator | Raw value | Normalised | Provenance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Access to clean cooking fuels and technologies clean_cook | 92.00 % of population | 91.6 | Derived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipeline | Clean |
CO2 emissions per capita co2_pc | 2.87 tonnes/person | 44.5 | Derived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipeline | Clean |
Modern renewable share (constructed proxy) modern_renew | 15.43 % | 85.8 | Derived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipeline | Clean |
M3Economic diversification & trade
Weight 12%Coverage 2/346.6
Monoculture turns one sectoral shock into a whole-economy shock.
| Indicator | Raw value | Normalised | Provenance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Tourism receipts, % of total exports tour_xp | No data | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Missing |
Export concentration (MVI XCON) xcon | 45.72 index 0-100 | 8.8 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Export instability (MVI XIN) xin | 13.07 index 0-100 | 84.4 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
M4Fiscal & financial capacity
Weight 12%Coverage 3/331.1
Decides whether a shock is absorbed or becomes a debt crisis.
| Indicator | Raw value | Normalised | Provenance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Current account balance, % of GDP cab | -1.78 % | 58.2 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
External debt stocks, % of GNI extdebt | 98.83 % | 0.0 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Log GDP per capita ln_gdppc | 8.45 ln(current US$) | 35.1 | Derived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipeline | Clean |
M5Digital infrastructure & innovation
Weight 11%Coverage 2/346.3
Sets medium-run adaptive capacity; shocks do not transmit through it in weeks.
| Indicator | Raw value | Normalised | Provenance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
E-Government Development Index egi | 0.539 index 0-1 | 41.5 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Global Cybersecurity Index gci | No data | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Missing |
Telecommunication Infrastructure Index tii | 0.515 index 0-1 | 51.1 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
M6Climate & disaster resilience
Weight 12%Coverage 3/350.7
Direct existential exposure for low-lying islands.
| Indicator | Raw value | Normalised | Provenance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Population in low-elevation coastal zone (MVI LECZ) lecz | 26.16 index 0-100 | 75.3 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
ND-GAIN climate vulnerability ndgain_vul | 0.424 index 0-1 | 71.8 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Victims of natural disasters (MVI VIC) vic | 75.51 index 0-100 | 4.9 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
M7Ocean & ecosystem health
Weight 9%Coverage 3/351.0
Partly already captured inside food security; discounted to avoid double counting.
| Indicator | Raw value | Normalised | Provenance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Marine protected areas, % of territorial waters mpa | 0.755 % | 85.9 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Ocean Health Index ohi | 62.36 score 0-100 | 31.2 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area) tpa_land | 15.90 % | 35.9 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
M8Human capital & youth capacity
Weight 11%Coverage 3/365.8
Determines whether young people stay; slower transmission.
| Indicator | Raw value | Normalised | Provenance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Human Capital Index (UN DESA) hci | 0.714 index 0-1 | 65.2 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Human Development Index hdi | 0.734 index 0-1 | 52.3 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Youth unemployment, ages 15-24 youth_unemp | 10.38 % | 80.0 | WDI / ILO supplementary serieswdi_ilo_supplementary | Clean |
M9External dependence & connectivity
Weight 9%Coverage 3/355.4
Partly already captured inside fiscal and diversification; discounted.
| Indicator | Raw value | Normalised | Provenance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net ODA received, % of GNI oda | 0.759 % | 88.8 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Remoteness (MVI REM) rem_idx | 57.10 index 0-100 | 74.9 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Personal remittances received, % of GDP remit | 21.40 % | 2.4 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Dependence channels
The five channels behind the Cumulative Vulnerability Index. Both the channel score and the values beneath it are 0–100 exposures, and they run opposite to the resilience scores: higher means more tied to the outside.
V1Food & import supply
Weight 25%Coverage 2/284.5
| Indicator | Raw value | Exposure | Provenance |
|---|---|---|---|
Agriculture/forestry/fishing share of GDP (MVI AFF) aff | 11.60 index 0-100 | 69.0 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as published |
Fish Stock Status (EPI) fss | 0.694 score 0-100 | 100.0 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as published |
Inverted relative to the resilience layer. A large primary sector is a volatility risk (lowers M1) but also domestic calorie supply (lowers V1). Both readings are kept.
V2Energy & fuel
Weight 20%Coverage 2/211.3
| Indicator | Raw value | Exposure | Provenance |
|---|---|---|---|
Modern renewable share (constructed proxy) modern_renew | 15.43 % | 14.2 | Derived inside the pipeline |
Access to clean cooking fuels and technologies clean_cook | 92.00 % of population | 8.4 | Derived inside the pipeline |
Enters V2 as a capability, not as fuel independence. Clean cooking on a small island usually means imported LPG, so treating it as reduced energy dependence is the weakest link in this channel. Flagged, not hidden.
V3External demand
Weight 20%Coverage 2/353.4
| Indicator | Raw value | Exposure | Provenance |
|---|---|---|---|
Tourism receipts, % of total exports tour_xp | No data | No data | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedMissing |
Export concentration (MVI XCON) xcon | 45.72 index 0-100 | 91.2 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as published |
Export instability (MVI XIN) xin | 13.07 index 0-100 | 15.6 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as published |
V4Capital & external finance
Weight 20%Coverage 4/462.2
| Indicator | Raw value | Exposure | Provenance |
|---|---|---|---|
FDI net inflows, % of GDP fdi | 4.20 % | 39.9 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as published |
Net ODA received, % of GNI oda | 0.759 % | 11.2 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as published |
External debt stocks, % of GNI extdebt | 98.83 % | 100.0 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as published |
Personal remittances received, % of GDP remit | 21.40 % | 97.6 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as published |
V5Trade logistics & remoteness
Weight 15%Coverage 1/225.1
| Indicator | Raw value | Exposure | Provenance |
|---|---|---|---|
Remoteness (MVI REM) rem_idx | 57.10 index 0-100 | 25.1 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as published |
Trade (exports+imports), % of GDP trade | No data | No data | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedMissing |
Trade openness is an amplifier here, not a shock: it measures how much of the economy has to physically cross an ocean.
A channel indicator's exposure is usually the complement of the same base indicator's resilience score. It is the same number read from two directions, which is why both layers are shown.
The 2020 shock and the path back
Constant-price GDP per capita indexed to 2019 = 100. The recovery band — rapid, moderate, unrecovered — is derived from the year this line comes back to 100.
2020 growth -10.2%
- Jamaica — Real GDP per capita, indexed
- 2019 = 100
- Recovery
- Recovered in 2–3 years
- Years to recover
- 2yr
- 2020 index
- 91.5
- Trough against 2019
- −8.5 (2020)
- Latest observation
- 104.8 (2024)
The vertical axis always contains 100. An axis that stretches to fit the data would draw a shallow fall and a deep one as the same shape. Only this island's path is drawn here. Laying the rest of the panel underneath as faint grey context would need all twelve series, and this route loads one island. The panel-wide 2020 comparison lives on the 2020 validation view.
▸Table view
| Year | Index | Vs 2019 | Marked |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 96.07 | −3.93 | |
| 2018 | 98.33 | −1.67 | |
| 2019 | 100.00 | 0.00 | |
| 2020 | 91.45 | −8.55 | Trough |
| 2021 | 96.43 | −3.57 | |
| 2022 | 102.59 | +2.59 | Back at the 2019 level |
| 2023 | 105.38 | +5.38 | |
| 2024 | 104.84 | +4.84 |
Shock channels: exposure and capacity
Exposure is the share of the economy actually standing in front of that shock (0–100%); capacity is a 0–100 score built from the metrics that resist it. The two have different units, so they sit side by side in a table rather than sharing an axis.
| Shock channel | Exposure | Capacity | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tourism demand | No data | 40.4 | % fall in tourism receipts |
| Fuel price | 84.6% | 56.8 | % change in fuel import cost |
| Food price | 84.5% | 46.7 | % change in food import cost |
| External capital | 68.0% | 35.7 | % tightening of external finance |
| Freight & logistics | 25.1% | 51.7 | % rise in freight cost / lead time |
| Physical climate | 44.2% | 44.8 | cyclone / sea-level stress index |
Only the tourism exposure is an “effective” figure: the tourism share of exports multiplied by the monetised share of the economy. In a largely subsistence economy the export share overstates how much livelihood is actually at risk. The other five are exactly as defined below.
▸How each exposure is defined (as published)
- Tourism demand Tourism receipts as a share of total exports, used directly rather than normalised: an 85% share means 85% of export earnings are at risk.
- Fuel price Share of final energy that is NOT modern renewable, i.e. 100 - modern_renew. Traditional biomass does not count as energy independence.
- Food price Low domestic primary production (MVI AFF, inverted) plus weak fishery (EPI Fish Stock Status, inverted).
- External capital Reliance on externally sourced money: external debt, remittances and FDI.
- Freight & logistics Remoteness (MVI REM) times trade openness — how much of the economy has to cross an ocean.
- Physical climate Direct climate exposure: low-elevation coastal population, disaster victims, and ND-GAIN vulnerability.
Reference scenario resultReference (all channels 30%)
A like-for-like comparison scenario: every one of the six channels shocked by the same 30%. It is a measuring stick, not a forecast of any actual event.
- GDP loss
- 29.24%
- Composite change
- −4.99
- Sector that fails first
- Food & primary production security−10.77 pts
Indicator provenance
All 36 indicator cells for this island, grouped by the metric they feed, with the raw value, its unit, the normalised score, the exposure and the provenance of each. Missing and flagged cells are not hidden.
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Normalised | Exposure | Provenance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1Food & primary production security · Coverage 3/3 | ||||||
Agriculture/forestry/fishing share of GDP (MVI AFF) affUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI (LDC EVI component). High share = economy leans on a volatile, weather-exposed primary sector. | 11.60 | index 0-100 | 69.0 | 69.0 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | CleanV1 |
Instability of agricultural production (MVI AIN) ainUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI. Year-to-year volatility of domestic food & crop output. | 8.37 | index 0-100 | 91.0 | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Fish Stock Status (EPI) fssUNDP SIDS Platform / Blue block, Environmental Performance Index. Health of the fishery the island eats from. | 0.694 | score 0-100 | 0.0 | 100.0 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | CleanV1 |
| M2Energy security & transition · Coverage 3/3 | ||||||
Access to clean cooking fuels and technologies clean_cookWDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS, 2022 (Our World in Data / Tracking SDG7). Added to correct the traditional-biomass problem. | 92.00 | % of population | 91.6 | 8.4 | Derived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipeline | CleanV2 |
CO2 emissions per capita co2_pcDerived: co2_kt x 1000 / population. | 2.87 | tonnes/person | 44.5 | — | Derived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipeline | Clean |
Modern renewable share (constructed proxy) modern_renewCONSTRUCTED PROXY, not an official statistic: renewable share x clean cooking access / 100. Strips fuelwood and charcoal out of the headline renewable share. | 15.43 | % | 85.8 | 14.2 | Derived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipeline | CleanV2 |
| M3Economic diversification & trade · Coverage 2/3 | ||||||
Tourism receipts, % of total exports tour_xpUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI block (WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS). Treated as monoculture risk, not as income. | No data | % | — | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | MissingV3 |
Export concentration (MVI XCON) xconUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI. How few products/services the island's export earnings rest on. | 45.72 | index 0-100 | 8.8 | 91.2 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | CleanV3 |
Export instability (MVI XIN) xinUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI. Volatility of export earnings. | 13.07 | index 0-100 | 84.4 | 15.6 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | CleanV3 |
| M4Fiscal & financial capacity · Coverage 3/3 | ||||||
Current account balance, % of GDP cabUNDP SIDS Platform / Finance block (WDI BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS). | -1.78 | % | 58.2 | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
External debt stocks, % of GNI extdebtUNDP SIDS Platform / Finance block (WDI DT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZS, 2019). | 98.83 | % | 0.0 | 100.0 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | CleanV4 |
Log GDP per capita ln_gdppcDerived: natural log of GDP per capita, to stop Singapore compressing the panel. | 8.45 | ln(current US$) | 35.1 | — | Derived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipeline | Clean |
| M5Digital infrastructure & innovation · Coverage 2/3 | ||||||
E-Government Development Index egiUNDP SIDS Platform / Digital block (UN DESA EGDI, 2020). | 0.539 | index 0-1 | 41.5 | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Global Cybersecurity Index gciUNDP SIDS Platform / Digital block (ITU GCI, 2020). | No data | score 0-100 | — | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Missing |
Telecommunication Infrastructure Index tiiUNDP SIDS Platform / Digital block (UN DESA TII, 2020). | 0.515 | index 0-1 | 51.1 | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
| M6Climate & disaster resilience · Coverage 3/3 | ||||||
Population in low-elevation coastal zone (MVI LECZ) leczUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI. Share of people living <5 m above sea level. | 26.16 | index 0-100 | 75.3 | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
ND-GAIN climate vulnerability ndgain_vulUNDP SIDS Platform / Climate block (Notre Dame GAIN, 2019). Higher = more exposed/sensitive, less adaptive. | 0.424 | index 0-1 | 71.8 | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Victims of natural disasters (MVI VIC) vicUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI. Population affected by disasters, indexed. | 75.51 | index 0-100 | 4.9 | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
| M7Ocean & ecosystem health · Coverage 3/3 | ||||||
Marine protected areas, % of territorial waters mpaUNDP SIDS Platform / Blue block (WDI ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS, 2018). | 0.755 | % | 85.9 | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Ocean Health Index ohiUNDP SIDS Platform / Blue block (OHI, 2020). | 62.36 | score 0-100 | 31.2 | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area) tpa_landWDI ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, 2018. Added 8 Aug 2026. True land-protection measure; replaces `tpa` inside M7 Ocean & ecosystem health. | 15.90 | % | 35.9 | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
| M8Human capital & youth capacity · Coverage 3/3 | ||||||
Human Capital Index (UN DESA) hciUNDP SIDS Platform / Digital block (UN DESA HCI, 2020). Schooling + literacy composite. | 0.714 | index 0-1 | 65.2 | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Human Development Index hdiUNDP SIDS Platform / Profile block (UNDP HDR, 2019). | 0.734 | index 0-1 | 52.3 | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Youth unemployment, ages 15-24 youth_unempWorld Bank WDI SL.UEM.1524.ZS (ILO modelled estimate, 2024). SUPPLEMENTARY - not on the SIDS platform. | 10.38 | % | 80.0 | — | WDI / ILO supplementary serieswdi_ilo_supplementary | Clean |
| M9External dependence & connectivity · Coverage 3/3 | ||||||
Net ODA received, % of GNI odaUNDP SIDS Platform / Finance block (WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS). | 0.759 | % | 88.8 | 11.2 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | CleanV4 |
Remoteness (MVI REM) rem_idxUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI. Distance-weighted trade remoteness from world markets. | 57.10 | index 0-100 | 74.9 | 25.1 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | CleanV5 |
Personal remittances received, % of GDP remitUNDP SIDS Platform / Finance block (WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS, 2020). Treated as external-income dependence. | 21.40 | % | 2.4 | 97.6 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | CleanV4 |
| Auxiliary and derived values that enter no metric — These do not enter the composite directly. They are inputs to derived indicators (population, GDP), used only by the vulnerability layer, or kept for reference. | ||||||
CO2 emissions co2_ktUNDP SIDS Platform / Climate block (WDI EN.ATM.CO2E.KT, 2018). Converted to tonnes per capita in the model. | 8510 | kilotonnes | 82.0 | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
FDI net inflows, % of GDP fdiUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI block (WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS, 2019). Used in the dependence layer only. | 4.20 | % | 60.1 | 39.9 | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | CleanV4 |
GDP per capita gdppcUNDP SIDS Platform / Finance block (WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.CD, 2020). Log-transformed in the model. | 4665 | current US$ | 5.9 | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Pre-shock (2019) GDP per capita gdppc_preshockDerived: 2020 GDP per capita backed out by the 2020 real growth rate. | 5194 | current US$ | 6.4 | — | Derived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipeline | Clean |
General government gross debt govdebt_2024IMF WEO 2024. INCOMPLETE - missing for PNG, SGP, SYC, TUV, VUT, so the fiscal metric still uses external debt. | 62.50 | % of GDP | 60.1 | — | Derived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipeline | Clean |
Population density pop_densityDerived: population / surface area. NB the denominator is surface area, not land area. | 269 | people/km2 | 96.8 | — | Derived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipeline | Clean |
Renewable energy, % of final energy consumption renewUNDP SIDS Platform / Climate block (WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, 2015). | 16.77 | % | 21.3 | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Terrestrial AND marine protected areas (% of total territorial area) tpaWDI ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS, 2018. RETAINED FOR REFERENCE ONLY - not used in M7. Denominator is total territorial area including waters, so it overlaps `mpa` and is not a land-protection measure despite its original label. | 1.41 | % | 70.5 | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | Clean |
Trade (exports+imports), % of GDP tradeUNDP SIDS Platform / Finance block (WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS). Openness = exposure in the dependence layer. | No data | % | — | — | UNDP SIDS Platform, as publishedsids_platform | MissingV5 |
▸Source note (as published)
Remittances are ~21% of GDP; >90% of energy is imported fossil fuel; one of the highest debt burdens per capita in the world.