This model is a structural snapshot of 2018–2021. It is not a present-day estimate.See limitations

Jeju

Every number behind this island's composite, opened up to the raw values. Nine metric scores and the indicators under each, the five dependence channels, the 2019 = 100 recovery path, exposure and capacity on the six shock channels, and the provenance of all 36 indicator cells.

JJUData confidence20.7%·22Contrast caseData vintage 2018-2021 (structural snapshot, not a nowcast)
Region
East Asia
Income
High (sub-national)
Capital
Jeju City
Population
695,382
Area
1,850.3 km²
Rank
Not ranked

Warning: Jeju is a contrast case and is never ranked. Jeju is a special self-governing province of South Korea, not a sovereign state. 22 of 28 indicators are undefined at sub-national level, and the rest inherit Korea's sovereign credit, national grid and national digital infrastructure. It scores near the top on every measure of shock-absorbing capacity — not because Jeju is resilient, but because Korea is.

Composite resilience
66.6
Not rankedWeight carried 47%
CVI
57.1
Not ranked
Resilience − dependence gap
+9.5
66.657.1
Resilience vs dependence
Dependent but capable
Has the capital and logistics to manage a dependence it cannot eliminate. The most interesting cell in the model.

The nine-metric shape

This island (solid) against the panel's per-metric median (dashed) on the same fixed 0–100 axis. An axis with no value is left unconnected: joining a missing score to zero would invent a shape that is not in the data.

255075100FoodEnergyDiversificationFiscalDigitalClimateOceanHuman capitalDependence
  • Jeju
  • Panel median

The median is taken over the twelve-island panel only. The contrast case never enters the reference.

Table view
Jeju — The nine-metric shape
MetricScorePanel medianVs medianCoverage
M1 Food70.455.4+14.91/3
M2 Energy53.40/3
M3 Diversification23.847.8−24.11/3
M4 Fiscal76.945.8+31.11/3
M5 Digital48.70/3
M6 Climate36.70/3
M7 Ocean23.00/3
M8 Human capital97.963.2+34.71/3
M9 Dependence60.30/3

Metric by metric

A metric score is the plain mean of its base indicators after normalisation to 0–100. A missing indicator is dropped from that mean rather than scored as zero, so a thin coverage string means the score rests on correspondingly less evidence.

M1Food & primary production security

Weight 12%Coverage 1/370.4

No short-run domestic substitute for calories.

M1 Food & primary production security — Indicator
IndicatorRaw valueNormalisedProvenanceStatus
Agriculture/forestry/fishing share of GDP (MVI AFF) aff11.10 index 0-10070.4Jeju-specific, approximatejeju_specific_approxClean
Instability of agricultural production (MVI AIN) ainNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Fish Stock Status (EPI) fssNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing

M2Energy security & transition

Weight 12%Coverage 0/3

No dataCoverage 0/3

Fuel cutoffs cascade into water, transport and the cold chain.

M2 Energy security & transition — Indicator
IndicatorRaw valueNormalisedProvenanceStatus
Access to clean cooking fuels and technologies clean_cookNo dataDerived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipelineMissing
CO2 emissions per capita co2_pcNo dataDerived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipelineMissing
Modern renewable share (constructed proxy) modern_renewNo dataDerived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipelineMissing

M3Economic diversification & trade

Weight 12%Coverage 1/323.8

Monoculture turns one sectoral shock into a whole-economy shock.

M3 Economic diversification & trade — Indicator
IndicatorRaw valueNormalisedProvenanceStatus
Tourism receipts, % of total exports tour_xp30.60 %23.8Jeju-specific but NOT defined as the panel isjeju_specific_NOT_EQUIVALENTClean
Export concentration (MVI XCON) xconNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Export instability (MVI XIN) xinNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing

M4Fiscal & financial capacity

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Decides whether a shock is absorbed or becomes a debt crisis.

M4 Fiscal & financial capacity — Indicator
IndicatorRaw valueNormalisedProvenanceStatus
Current account balance, % of GDP cabNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
External debt stocks, % of GNI extdebtNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Log GDP per capita ln_gdppc10.09 ln(current US$)76.9Derived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipelineClean

M5Digital infrastructure & innovation

Weight 11%Coverage 0/3

No dataCoverage 0/3

Sets medium-run adaptive capacity; shocks do not transmit through it in weeks.

M5 Digital infrastructure & innovation — Indicator
IndicatorRaw valueNormalisedProvenanceStatus
E-Government Development Index egiNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Global Cybersecurity Index gciNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Telecommunication Infrastructure Index tiiNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing

M6Climate & disaster resilience

Weight 12%Coverage 0/3

No dataCoverage 0/3

Direct existential exposure for low-lying islands.

M6 Climate & disaster resilience — Indicator
IndicatorRaw valueNormalisedProvenanceStatus
Population in low-elevation coastal zone (MVI LECZ) leczNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
ND-GAIN climate vulnerability ndgain_vulNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Victims of natural disasters (MVI VIC) vicNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing

M7Ocean & ecosystem health

Weight 9%Coverage 0/3

No dataCoverage 0/3

Partly already captured inside food security; discounted to avoid double counting.

M7 Ocean & ecosystem health — Indicator
IndicatorRaw valueNormalisedProvenanceStatus
Marine protected areas, % of territorial waters mpaNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Ocean Health Index ohiNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area) tpa_landNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing

M8Human capital & youth capacity

Weight 11%Coverage 1/397.9

Determines whether young people stay; slower transmission.

M8 Human capital & youth capacity — Indicator
IndicatorRaw valueNormalisedProvenanceStatus
Human Capital Index (UN DESA) hciNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Human Development Index hdi0.929 index 0-197.9Korea's national value used as-iskorea_national_proxyProxy
Youth unemployment, ages 15-24 youth_unempNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing

M9External dependence & connectivity

Weight 9%Coverage 0/3

No dataCoverage 0/3

Partly already captured inside fiscal and diversification; discounted.

M9 External dependence & connectivity — Indicator
IndicatorRaw valueNormalisedProvenanceStatus
Net ODA received, % of GNI odaNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Remoteness (MVI REM) rem_idxNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Personal remittances received, % of GDP remitNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing

Dependence channels

The five channels behind the Cumulative Vulnerability Index. Both the channel score and the values beneath it are 0–100 exposures, and they run opposite to the resilience scores: higher means more tied to the outside.

V1Food & import supply

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V1 Food & import supply
IndicatorRaw valueExposureProvenance
Agriculture/forestry/fishing share of GDP (MVI AFF) aff11.10 index 0-10070.4Jeju-specific, approximate
Fish Stock Status (EPI) fssNo dataNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelMissing

Inverted relative to the resilience layer. A large primary sector is a volatility risk (lowers M1) but also domestic calorie supply (lowers V1). Both readings are kept.

V2Energy & fuel

Weight 20%Coverage 0/2
V2 Energy & fuel
IndicatorRaw valueExposureProvenance
Modern renewable share (constructed proxy) modern_renewNo dataNo dataDerived inside the pipelineMissing
Access to clean cooking fuels and technologies clean_cookNo dataNo dataDerived inside the pipelineMissing

Enters V2 as a capability, not as fuel independence. Clean cooking on a small island usually means imported LPG, so treating it as reduced energy dependence is the weakest link in this channel. Flagged, not hidden.

V3External demand

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V3 External demand
IndicatorRaw valueExposureProvenance
Tourism receipts, % of total exports tour_xp30.60 %76.2Jeju-specific but NOT defined as the panel is
Export concentration (MVI XCON) xconNo dataNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelMissing
Export instability (MVI XIN) xinNo dataNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelMissing

V4Capital & external finance

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V4 Capital & external finance
IndicatorRaw valueExposureProvenance
FDI net inflows, % of GDP fdi1.95 %21.5Jeju-specific, derived
Net ODA received, % of GNI odaNo dataNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelMissing
External debt stocks, % of GNI extdebtNo dataNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelMissing
Personal remittances received, % of GDP remitNo dataNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelMissing

V5Trade logistics & remoteness

Weight 15%Coverage 0/2
V5 Trade logistics & remoteness
IndicatorRaw valueExposureProvenance
Remoteness (MVI REM) rem_idxNo dataNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelMissing
Trade (exports+imports), % of GDP tradeNo dataNo dataUndefined at sub-national levelMissing

Trade openness is an amplifier here, not a shock: it measures how much of the economy has to physically cross an ocean.

A channel indicator's exposure is usually the complement of the same base indicator's resilience score. It is the same number read from two directions, which is why both layers are shown.

The 2020 shock and the path back

Constant-price GDP per capita indexed to 2019 = 100. The recovery band — rapid, moderate, unrecovered — is derived from the year this line comes back to 100.

2020 growth No data

No recovery path can be drawn

The snapshot holds no constant-price GDP-per-capita series for this island to index against 2019. Substituting another series would produce a chart that answers a different question, so nothing is drawn.Jeju is a province of South Korea, and the World Bank's constant-price GDP-per-capita series is published for sovereign states only. Drawing Korea's curve here would show Korea's recovery under Jeju's name, so it is not drawn.

Shock channels: exposure and capacity

Exposure is the share of the economy actually standing in front of that shock (0–100%); capacity is a 0–100 score built from the metrics that resist it. The two have different units, so they sit side by side in a table rather than sharing an axis.

Jeju — Shock channels: exposure and capacity
Shock channelExposureCapacityUnit
Tourism demandNo dataNo data% fall in tourism receipts
Fuel priceNo dataNo data% change in fuel import cost
Food priceNo dataNo data% change in food import cost
External capitalNo dataNo data% tightening of external finance
Freight & logisticsNo dataNo data% rise in freight cost / lead time
Physical climateNo dataNo datacyclone / sea-level stress index

Only the tourism exposure is an “effective” figure: the tourism share of exports multiplied by the monetised share of the economy. In a largely subsistence economy the export share overstates how much livelihood is actually at risk. The other five are exactly as defined below.

How each exposure is defined (as published)
  • Tourism demand Tourism receipts as a share of total exports, used directly rather than normalised: an 85% share means 85% of export earnings are at risk.
  • Fuel price Share of final energy that is NOT modern renewable, i.e. 100 - modern_renew. Traditional biomass does not count as energy independence.
  • Food price Low domestic primary production (MVI AFF, inverted) plus weak fishery (EPI Fish Stock Status, inverted).
  • External capital Reliance on externally sourced money: external debt, remittances and FDI.
  • Freight & logistics Remoteness (MVI REM) times trade openness — how much of the economy has to cross an ocean.
  • Physical climate Direct climate exposure: low-elevation coastal population, disaster victims, and ND-GAIN vulnerability.

Reference scenario resultReference (all channels 30%)

A like-for-like comparison scenario: every one of the six channels shocked by the same 30%. It is a measuring stick, not a forecast of any actual event.

Warning: No shock simulation runs for this island: none of the six exposures can be computed, because the base indicators behind them are all missing. Filling them with zero would produce the opposite conclusion — an island that shrugs off every shock.

Indicator provenance

All 36 indicator cells for this island, grouped by the metric they feed, with the raw value, its unit, the normalised score, the exposure and the provenance of each. Missing and flagged cells are not hidden.

Warning: Values outside the panel's range: tpa. For the indicators below, this island's value falls outside the range the rest of the panel occupies. Normalisation is stretched over the panel range, so such a value pins itself to the end of the scale and compresses everyone else.tpa (terrestrial and marine protected areas): every island in the panel is below 2.5%; this one reads 19.51%, an order of magnitude apart. That is not twenty times more protection — it is a definitional mismatch at source. The panel figure is a share of total territory including territorial waters, and this value was not recomputed on that basis. The indicator enters no metric, so it does not distort the composite, but it is shown rather than deleted.

Jeju — Indicator provenance
IndicatorValueUnitNormalisedExposureProvenanceStatus
M1Food & primary production security · Coverage 1/3
Agriculture/forestry/fishing share of GDP (MVI AFF) affUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI (LDC EVI component). High share = economy leans on a volatile, weather-exposed primary sector.11.10index 0-10070.470.4Jeju-specific, approximatejeju_specific_approxCleanV1
Instability of agricultural production (MVI AIN) ainUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI. Year-to-year volatility of domestic food & crop output.No dataindex 0-100Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Fish Stock Status (EPI) fssUNDP SIDS Platform / Blue block, Environmental Performance Index. Health of the fishery the island eats from.No datascore 0-100Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissingV1
M2Energy security & transition · Coverage 0/3
Access to clean cooking fuels and technologies clean_cookWDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS, 2022 (Our World in Data / Tracking SDG7). Added to correct the traditional-biomass problem.No data% of populationDerived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipelineMissingV2
CO2 emissions per capita co2_pcDerived: co2_kt x 1000 / population.No datatonnes/personDerived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipelineMissing
Modern renewable share (constructed proxy) modern_renewCONSTRUCTED PROXY, not an official statistic: renewable share x clean cooking access / 100. Strips fuelwood and charcoal out of the headline renewable share.No data%Derived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipelineMissingV2
M3Economic diversification & trade · Coverage 1/3
Tourism receipts, % of total exports tour_xpUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI block (WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS). Treated as monoculture risk, not as income.30.60%23.876.2Jeju-specific but NOT defined as the panel isjeju_specific_NOT_EQUIVALENTCleanV3
Export concentration (MVI XCON) xconUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI. How few products/services the island's export earnings rest on.No dataindex 0-100Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissingV3
Export instability (MVI XIN) xinUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI. Volatility of export earnings.No dataindex 0-100Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissingV3
M4Fiscal & financial capacity · Coverage 1/3
Current account balance, % of GDP cabUNDP SIDS Platform / Finance block (WDI BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS).No data%Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
External debt stocks, % of GNI extdebtUNDP SIDS Platform / Finance block (WDI DT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZS, 2019).No data%Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissingV4
Log GDP per capita ln_gdppcDerived: natural log of GDP per capita, to stop Singapore compressing the panel.10.09ln(current US$)76.9Derived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipelineClean
M5Digital infrastructure & innovation · Coverage 0/3
E-Government Development Index egiUNDP SIDS Platform / Digital block (UN DESA EGDI, 2020).No dataindex 0-1Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Global Cybersecurity Index gciUNDP SIDS Platform / Digital block (ITU GCI, 2020).No datascore 0-100Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Telecommunication Infrastructure Index tiiUNDP SIDS Platform / Digital block (UN DESA TII, 2020).No dataindex 0-1Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
M6Climate & disaster resilience · Coverage 0/3
Population in low-elevation coastal zone (MVI LECZ) leczUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI. Share of people living <5 m above sea level.No dataindex 0-100Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
ND-GAIN climate vulnerability ndgain_vulUNDP SIDS Platform / Climate block (Notre Dame GAIN, 2019). Higher = more exposed/sensitive, less adaptive.No dataindex 0-1Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Victims of natural disasters (MVI VIC) vicUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI. Population affected by disasters, indexed.No dataindex 0-100Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
M7Ocean & ecosystem health · Coverage 0/3
Marine protected areas, % of territorial waters mpaUNDP SIDS Platform / Blue block (WDI ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS, 2018).No data%Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Ocean Health Index ohiUNDP SIDS Platform / Blue block (OHI, 2020).No datascore 0-100Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area) tpa_landWDI ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, 2018. Added 8 Aug 2026. True land-protection measure; replaces `tpa` inside M7 Ocean & ecosystem health.No data%Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
M8Human capital & youth capacity · Coverage 1/3
Human Capital Index (UN DESA) hciUNDP SIDS Platform / Digital block (UN DESA HCI, 2020). Schooling + literacy composite.No dataindex 0-1Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
Human Development Index hdiUNDP SIDS Platform / Profile block (UNDP HDR, 2019).0.929index 0-197.9Korea's national value used as-iskorea_national_proxyProxy
Youth unemployment, ages 15-24 youth_unempWorld Bank WDI SL.UEM.1524.ZS (ILO modelled estimate, 2024). SUPPLEMENTARY - not on the SIDS platform.No data%Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
M9External dependence & connectivity · Coverage 0/3
Net ODA received, % of GNI odaUNDP SIDS Platform / Finance block (WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS).No data%Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissingV4
Remoteness (MVI REM) rem_idxUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI. Distance-weighted trade remoteness from world markets.No dataindex 0-100Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissingV5
Personal remittances received, % of GDP remitUNDP SIDS Platform / Finance block (WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS, 2020). Treated as external-income dependence.No data%Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissingV4
Auxiliary and derived values that enter no metric These do not enter the composite directly. They are inputs to derived indicators (population, GDP), used only by the vulnerability layer, or kept for reference.
CO2 emissions co2_ktUNDP SIDS Platform / Climate block (WDI EN.ATM.CO2E.KT, 2018). Converted to tonnes per capita in the model.No datakilotonnesUndefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissing
FDI net inflows, % of GDP fdiUNDP SIDS Platform / MVI block (WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS, 2019). Used in the dependence layer only.1.95%78.521.5Jeju-specific, derivedjeju_specific_derivedCleanV4
GDP per capita gdppcUNDP SIDS Platform / Finance block (WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.CD, 2020). Log-transformed in the model.24169current US$39.2Jeju-specific, convertedjeju_specific_convertedClean
Pre-shock (2019) GDP per capita gdppc_preshockDerived: 2020 GDP per capita backed out by the 2020 real growth rate.No datacurrent US$Derived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipelineMissing
General government gross debt govdebt_2024IMF WEO 2024. INCOMPLETE - missing for PNG, SGP, SYC, TUV, VUT, so the fiscal metric still uses external debt.No data% of GDPDerived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipelineMissing
Population density pop_densityDerived: population / surface area. NB the denominator is surface area, not land area.376people/km295.5Derived inside the pipelinederived_in_pipelineClean
Renewable energy, % of final energy consumption renewUNDP SIDS Platform / Climate block (WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, 2015).18.30%23.3Jeju-specific but NOT defined as the panel isjeju_specific_NOT_EQUIVALENTClean
Terrestrial AND marine protected areas (% of total territorial area) tpaWDI ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS, 2018. RETAINED FOR REFERENCE ONLY - not used in M7. Denominator is total territorial area including waters, so it overlaps `mpa` and is not a land-protection measure despite its original label.19.51%100.0Jeju-specific, derivedjeju_specific_derivedOutside panel range
Trade (exports+imports), % of GDP tradeUNDP SIDS Platform / Finance block (WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS). Openness = exposure in the dependence layer.No data%Undefined at sub-national levelunavailable_subnationalMissingV5
Source note (as published)

Sub-national province of South Korea, included as the contrast case of an island that is physically constrained but politically integrated with a large mainland. Imports up to 600 MW of electricity via HVDC submarine cables (Haenam 1998, Jindo 2014, Wando-East Jeju). Carbon Free Island 2030 programme targets 100% renewable electricity. SCORE IS NOT DIRECTLY COMPARABLE - see provenance flags.