Shock simulator
Move six external shock channels and the model computes how far each of the twelve islands falls. The damage function is calibrated on what actually happened in 2020, with only two free parameters.
Warning: First-round only: the loss does not feed back into the composite, and there is no time index. The GDP-loss figure is the calibrated output (two free parameters, fitted on the 2020 event, leave-one-out error 4.24pp on n=10). The composite delta and the most-vulnerable-sector call are an explanatory decomposition and are NOT independently calibrated. Islands with missing exposure channels are understated - check missing_channels.
Shock settings
The like-for-like comparison scenario required by the model spec.
▸Why the slider ranges are what they are · how each channel's exposure is defined
The ranges are not arbitrary. The minimum and maximum on each economic channel is the historically observed range for that channel; the physical-climate channel follows a published IPCC pathway. The API rejects anything outside them with a 422. Several channels have a negative minimum because a shock can move favourably — a fall in fuel prices is a gain for an importer, not a loss, and that is exactly what happened in 2020.
- Tourism demand [-20, 100] % fall in tourism receipts
- Tourism receipts as a share of total exports, used directly rather than normalised: an 85% share means 85% of export earnings are at risk.
- Fuel price [-60, 150] % change in fuel import cost
- Share of final energy that is NOT modern renewable, i.e. 100 - modern_renew. Traditional biomass does not count as energy independence.
- Food price [-30, 120] % change in food import cost
- Low domestic primary production (MVI AFF, inverted) plus weak fishery (EPI Fish Stock Status, inverted).
- External capital [-30, 100] % tightening of external finance
- Reliance on externally sourced money: external debt, remittances and FDI.
- Freight & logistics [-20, 120] % rise in freight cost / lead time
- Remoteness (MVI REM) times trade openness — how much of the economy has to cross an ocean.
- Physical climate [0, 100] cyclone / sea-level stress index
- Direct climate exposure: low-elevation coastal population, disaster victims, and ND-GAIN vulnerability.
▸Model parameters
κ = 0.20 · scale = 0.3512
Contrast case: The simulator runs on the twelve-island panel only. Jeju is a contrast case that is never ranked, and 22 of the 28 indicators are undefined at sub-national level, so no exposure vector can be built for it — which is why it does not appear here.
GDP loss under this shock
This is the calibrated output. The two columns below are different units, so each carries its own scale: a 10% hit means something entirely different in Singapore than in Haiti.
This loss is UNDERSTATED: the island has no exposure data for the following channel, so that channel contributes zero — Tourism demand That channel is being shocked at the current setting.
This loss is UNDERSTATED: the island has no exposure data for the following channel, so that channel contributes zero — Tourism demand That channel is being shocked at the current setting.
▸Table view
| Island | Region | GDP loss % | Loss per capita | Composite change | Sector that fails first | Data confidence | Missing channels | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaldivesMDV | Indian Ocean (AIS) | 37.88 | US$4,152 | −4.61 | Food & primary production security | 96.6% | None | Recovered in 2–3 years |
| VanuatuVUT | Pacific | 33.59 | US$1,030 | −4.34 | Economic diversification & trade | 100.0% | None | Not recovered by 2024 |
| SeychellesSYC | Indian Ocean (AIS) | 32.18 | US$4,119 | −5.37 | Food & primary production security | 93.1% | None | Not recovered by 2024 |
| Papua New GuineaPNG | Pacific | 30.38 | US$833 | −4.72 | Food & primary production security | 96.6% | None | Not recovered by 2024 |
| FijiFJI | Pacific | 29.66 | US$1,788 | −5.12 | Energy security & transition | 100.0% | None | Recovered in 2–3 years |
| JamaicaJAM | Caribbean | 29.24 | US$1,519 | −4.99 | Food & primary production security | 89.7% | Tourism demand | Recovered in 2–3 years |
| MauritiusMUS | Indian Ocean (AIS) | 29.18 | US$2,955 | −5.60 | Food & primary production security | 100.0% | None | Recovered in 2–3 years |
| Cabo VerdeCPV | Atlantic (AIS) | 28.63 | US$1,029 | −4.52 | Energy security & transition | 100.0% | None | Recovered in 2–3 years |
| TuvaluTUV | Pacific | 28.55 | US$1,133 | −3.02 | Energy security & transition | 79.3% | Tourism demand | Recovered within 1 year |
| SingaporeSGP | Asia (AIS) | 27.73 | US$17,525 | −6.07 | Fiscal & financial capacity | 89.7% | None | Recovered within 1 year |
| BarbadosBRB | Caribbean | 25.94 | US$4,782 | −5.43 | Food & primary production security | 89.7% | None | Recovered in 2–3 years |
| HaitiHTI | Caribbean | 24.53 | US$299 | −3.33 | Energy security & transition | 100.0% | None | Not recovered by 2024 |
The sector that fails first
The current setting beside the reference scenario (all channels at 30%). Where the two columns disagree, that island's weak point moves with the kind of shock it faces.
0 of the twelve islands fail in a different sector than they do under the reference scenario. · explanatory decomposition · not calibrated
| Island | Current setting | Reference scenario | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maldives | Food & primary production security−10.96 | Food & primary production security−10.96 | |
| Vanuatu | Economic diversification & trade−8.55 | Economic diversification & trade−8.55 | |
| Seychelles | Food & primary production security−13.30 | Food & primary production security−13.30 | |
| Papua New Guinea | Food & primary production security−8.46 | Food & primary production security−8.46 | |
| Fiji | Energy security & transition−8.71 | Energy security & transition−8.71 | |
| Jamaica | Food & primary production security−10.77 | Food & primary production security−10.77 | |
| Mauritius | Food & primary production security−11.79 | Food & primary production security−11.79 | |
| Cabo Verde | Energy security & transition−10.51 | Energy security & transition−10.51 | |
| Tuvalu | Energy security & transition−10.08 | Energy security & transition−10.08 | |
| Singapore | Fiscal & financial capacity−16.55 | Fiscal & financial capacity−16.55 | |
| Barbados | Food & primary production security−12.22 | Food & primary production security−12.22 | |
| Haiti | Energy security & transition−7.24 | Energy security & transition−7.24 |
M1 Food · M2 Energy · M3 Diversification · M4 Fiscal · M5 Digital · M6 Climate · M7 Ocean · M8 Human capital · M9 Dependence
2020 validation: predicted vs observed
The model held against what 2020 actually did. Only two parameters are free — a global scale and the damping exponent κ — and every exposure is fixed by the data.
- Used in the fit
- Excluded from fit (hollow)
- Perfect prediction (45°)
A negative loss means the economy grew in 2020. Tuvalu is the one such case here.
Warning: Two islands are held out of the fit because tourism's share of exports is unavailable for them. Their predictions carry a zero tourism channel and are therefore understated. Jamaica · Tuvalu
▸The 2020 shock vector used for the fit
- Tourism demand · % fall in tourism receipts+90
- Fuel price · % change in fuel import cost−30
- Food price · % change in food import cost+20
- External capital · % tightening of external finance+25
- Freight & logistics · % rise in freight cost / lead time+40
- Physical climate · cyclone / sea-level stress index0
κ = 0.20 · scale = 0.3512
▸Fit note, verbatim from the API
Fitted on the 2020 COVID event, which is a shock VECTOR - fuel moved favourably for importers while tourism collapsed. Only two parameters are free (global scale, damping exponent kappa); all exposures are fixed by the data. Leave-one-out mean absolute error is 4.24 percentage points of GDP. Jamaica and Tuvalu are excluded from the fit because tourism share of exports is unavailable for them.
▸Table view
Error is predicted minus observed; a positive value means the model over-predicted the loss.
| Island | Predicted % | Observed % | Error pp | In fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaldivesMDV | 24.22 | 31.98 | −7.76 | Yes |
| FijiFJI | 16.28 | 19.05 | −2.77 | Yes |
| BarbadosBRB | 11.93 | 17.61 | −5.68 | Yes |
| MauritiusMUS | 14.51 | 14.87 | −0.36 | Yes |
| Cabo VerdeCPV | 18.55 | 14.78 | +3.77 | Yes |
| SeychellesSYC | 11.26 | 10.72 | +0.54 | Yes |
| JamaicaJAM | 6.19 | 10.20 | −4.01 | No |
| VanuatuVUT | 19.49 | 9.24 | +10.25 | Yes |
| SingaporeSGP | 7.67 | 5.39 | +2.28 | Yes |
| Papua New GuineaPNG | 6.05 | 3.88 | +2.17 | Yes |
| HaitiHTI | 3.35 | 3.37 | −0.02 | Yes |
| TuvaluTUV | 3.30 | -4.40 | +7.70 | No |